Why Do People Double Down?

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So picture this: Governor Smith has been the incumbent leader of her state for nearly a full term. Depending on whom you ask, she's generally done well in this position and is generally well-regarded. This election season, she ran into a highly tenacious opponent in the race for the state capital, and all polls seemed to show Smith with a slight edge at best going into the election. Governor Smith did not seem phased, and she gave a speech the night of the election that (surprising to many) bordered on a victory speech, although the election officials were saying that the vote was too close to call by the time midnight came around.

At five the next morning, Governor Smith is rudely awakened by a text from her campaign manager. It simply said this: OMG—We lost. WTH!?!?!? Call me.

Governor Smith truly could not believe it. After all, the top polling agency in the region had her ahead by 5 percent going into election day. And she knows (in her mind) that she's done a great job. According to the state election board, she lost by less than half a percent.

She calls her campaign manager right away. They are both fuming. Each of them, quite genuinely, refuses to believe the news. This truly can't be, they thought—as if they were thinking as a single unit.

They immediately scour the data that are available regarding the election, and they start to see all kinds of things that don't seem to make sense to them. For instance, Essex County reportedly had a 75 percent voter turnout rate. That didn't make any sense—historically, the highest that county has ever posted was 33 percent—not even close! Further, according to the data from the Election Board, Smith lost her own home county by more than 10 percent. Impossible! Smith and her campaign manager thought.

This election was rigged! It must have been! they thought.

By 8 a.m., they were on a call with their full legal team, planning a well-organized and highly aggressive set of lawsuits.

When Governor Smith's office was contacted by the press as to the timing of her concession speech, per Smith's orders, they said absolutely nothing. In short, Smith and the members of her team truly believed that this outcome was erroneous. They didn't simply want to believe this. They did believe it. And by planning a broad suite of lawsuits to overturn the decision, they clearly were doubling down.

Doubling Down as Cognitive Dissonance Reduction

Perhaps one of the most basic features of the human psychological condition pertains to a strong tendency to reduce cognitive dissonance (see Festinger & Carlsmith, 1959). The basic idea here pertains largely to the fact that we often (see Ross & Nisbett, 1991), unwittingly, mistake social reality (such as our attitudes about people or politics) with physical reality (such as the fact that water turns to ice below 32 degrees Fahrenheit). For instance, people often seem to think that their political views on some issue (e.g., state funding for higher education) are somehow "correct" just as much as their perception that an iceberg floating down a river in February formed in low winter temperatures.

People have a hard time changing their minds. We like to have the thoughts in our heads match up with the other thoughts in our heads. When we have one thought or piece of information that is not consistent with other thoughts in our heads, we often experience cognitive dissonance—an unpleasant psychological state that often motivates us to change our thoughts or to take action—or both—in an effort to return to a state in which one's thoughts once again are in harmony with one another.

A common way that people deal with cognitive dissonance is by doubling down. When Governor Smith was faced with the data about the election, she was immediately forced into a state of cognitive dissonance. And, as such, she felt that she had to do something to reduce that dissonance.

One way (of several) to reduce cognitive dissonance is to fully refuse to believe the new information that is inconsistent with the pre-existing beliefs that one has. And, often, this refusal to believe can result in action. When Governor Smith sought to launch a legal campaign against the election board on the heels of her purported loss, she was, in effect, doubling down on her pre-existing belief that she had the election in the bag.

Why do people so often double down in life? One reason can be found in our strong tendencies to do anything we can to reduce cognitive dissonance. Doubling down is, thus, a dissonance reduction technique.

Doubling Down in Modern Life

Did you ever vote for someone who won an election and then later come to find that this official voted against a piece of legislation that you support quite strongly? Sure, you might come to change your opinion of said official. Or, as we often see in cases like this, you might double down and convince yourself that the official is still really wonderful—and just made one mistake. We're all human, after all...

Or have you ever owned a piece of property that you spent thousands and thousands of dollars on, making it the single largest fiscal investment that you have? And then you come to find that it's got all kinds of problems that were never disclosed prior to purchase—problems that are going to cost you a fortune! Within one year, you find yourself replacing the roof, the furnace, and all the decking. You learn that there have been thousands of bees living in the attic for more than a decade. And a weird smell surfaces in the living room—and you can't seem to get rid of that smell no matter what! Sure, you could conclude that you made a bad purchase, but, really, who wants to do that?! In such a case, maybe you'd double down—trying to convince others and yourself that the house is just great. You may well, in fact, trivialize these problems. After all, it's a hard pill to swallow that you bought a clunker of a house. Many people in this kind of situation would, in fact, take all kinds of actions and make all kinds of statements that ultimately are acts of doubling down.

Cognitive Dissonance Essential Reads

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And so forth.

Bottom Line

People are funny. Generally speaking, people tend to be really smart. But, in spite of this fact, we see (and engage in) irrational behavior quite often. When someone makes a mistake and is called out on it, instead of admitting that they've made a mistake, they quite often double down instead—and as you can imagine, this fact often leads to problematic outcomes. Cognitive dissonance reduction is a major factor in shaping the human psychological experience.

In blackjack, "doubling down" corresponds to an action in which you double your bet, with the possibility of winning big. The downside is that you also risk losing twice as much as you would if you don't double down. In short, doubling down is risky business. And as is true at the card table in Vegas, doubling down in life is a risky strategy.

Perhaps the next time that you run into information that doesn't match your pre-existing thoughts or beliefs, step back. And maybe before doubling down on your initial beliefs, consider changing your mind.

If people were better at authentically changing their minds in light of appropriate evidence, the world would probably be a better place.